The statistics:
No actress has gotten a lead Oscar nomination for starring in a film rated "Rotten" by Rotten Tomatoes (at least since 1995; I haven't checked farther back). The closest was Juliette Binoche for a 62%-rated Chocolat in 2000.
Elizabeth: The Golden Age currently has a 24% rating. A terrible, terrible start.
Cate Blanchett has been nominated for this role before.
The sad but significantly big possibility:
No nomination for Cate for this role.
She's my absolute favorite actress, so I'm hoping that general critical praise for her performance and her sinful loss in 1998 could still work in her favor. And maybe the RT rating for the film can still go up...?
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