Sunday, March 11, 2018

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (91st)

"NEVER TOO EARLY" PREDICTIONS

LIKELY

1. TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET (BEAUTIFUL BOY)

Role: Nic Sheff, a teen whose life spirals due to meth addiction

Oscar Record: 1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

How close did Timothée Chalamet get to winning an Oscar? We will never know, but there's no denying how big a star he has become and the amount of respect that he gained among his peers due to Call Me By Your Name. Who's not excited to see him apply his tremendous acting talent to the role of a long-suffering meth addict? If it's a good enough film that gets traction in major categories, see him quickly become the front runner in this race.

MAYBE

2. COLMAN DOMINGO (IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK)

Role: Mr. Rivers, a man who helps his daughter prove her jailed fiancé's innocence

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

There are a lot of bigger names in the supporting cast of this much-buzzed Barry Jenkins project, but the role of father who takes up the crusade of his daughter, now bearing the child of her fiancé falsely accused of rape, is potentially a powerful one and the type that can get an actor his first career nomination. It would partly depend on how much screen time he actually has, though we must remember that Jenkins directed Mahershala Ali to his Oscar despite a short screentime.

POSSIBLE

3. JOEL EDGERTON (BOY ERASED)

Role: Victor Sykes, head therapist in a gay conversion program

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Joel Edgerton has been doing solid work as an actor for years. He's a riveting performer. He probably came rather close to getting a Best Actor nomination for Loving. Now he's directing himself in this potential major Oscar player, and a previous directorial effort (The Gift) was generally well received. How big is this role, though? And how much internal competition will he get from Russell Crowe, who plays the gay man's preacher father?

4. SAM ROCKWELL (BACKSEAT)

Role: George W. Bush, 43rd President of the USA

Oscar Record: 1 nomination and win for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Sam Rockwell might be back in this category the year immediately following the one that saw him get his first Oscar. He's a very strong actor, and people are probably very excited to see how he portrays President Bush. If it doesn't stray too far into caricature territory, then he's probably a safe bet. At the very least, it will be great fun to watch him perform.

5. RUSSELL CROWE (BOY ERASED)

Role: Marshall Conley, a Baptist pastor who sends his son to gay conversion therapy

Oscar Record: 3 nominations, with a win for Gladiator

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

It's quite rare for two men from the same film to get nominated in this category, but it might happen as it's a rather weak year. Russell Crowe has not been in a major Oscar player for quite some time, so the Academy might be eager to welcome him back, even if the role is not sympathetic. It could be a hefty dramatic turn. But if Martin Scorsese's The Irishman ends up being eligible for this Oscar year, watch for one of its three supporting actors to push Crowe out of the top five.

6. Jonathan Pryce (The Man Who Killed Don Quixote)

Role: Don Alonso Quixote, the man of La Mancha

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:

None

7. Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther)

Role: Erik Killmonger, usurper to the throne of Wakanda

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

8. Steve Carell (Backseat)

Role: Donald Rumsfeld, US Secretary of Defense

Oscar Record: 1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

9. Armie Hammer (On the Basis of Sex)

Role: Martin Ginsburg, husband of Ruth Bader Ginsburg

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

10. Jonathan Pryce (The Wife)

Role: Joe Castleman, Nobel Prize-winning author whose wife begins to question her life decisions

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Potential Major Players Currently Without Distributors (any of these can easily displace the lower-ranked contenders above once release dates are officially announced):
Ricard Darín (Everybody Knows)
Harvey Keitel (The Irishman)
Logan Lerman (Newsflash)
Bill Nighy (The Bookshop)
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Mark Ruffalo (Newsflash)
J.K. Simmons (The Front Runner)
Forest Whitaker (Burden)
Jeffrey Wright (Monster)

Other Contenders:
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Jack Black (Don't Worry, He Won't Get Far on Foot)
Steve Buscemi (Lean on Pete)
Michael Cera (Gloria)
Russell Crowe (The True History of the Kelly Gang)
Billy Crudup (Where'd You Go, Bernadette)
Benicio Del Toro (Sicario 2: Soldado)
Bruce Dern (White Boy Rick)
Stephen Dillane (Outlaw King)
Jamie Dornan (A Private War)
Adam Driver (Black Klansman)
Tom Felton (Ophelia)
Ralph Fiennes (The White Crow)
Dave Franco (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Bruno Ganz (The Party)
Bruno Ganz (Radegund)
Topher Grace (Under the Silver Lake)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Jake Gyllenhaal (The Sisters Brothers)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Wildlife)
Jonah Hill (Don't Worry, He Won't Get Far on Foot)
Nicholas Hoult (The True History of the Kelly Gang)
Oscar Isaac (At Eternity's Gate)
Toby Kebbell (Destroyer)
Ben Kingsley (Operation Finale)
Jude Law (A Rainy Day in New York)
George MacKay (Ophelia)
John Malkovich (Extremely Wicked, Shockingly Evil and Vile)
Cillian Murphy (The Party)
Michael Nyqvist (Radegund)
Haley Joel Osment (Extremely Wicked, Shockingly Evil and Vile)
Clive Owen (Ophelia)
Jürgen Prochnow (Radegund)
Tahar Ramin (New York Winter Palace)
John C. Reilly (The Sisters Brothers)
Sam Rockwell (Woman Walks Ahead)
Matthis Schoenaerts (Radegund)
Michael Shannon (What They Had)
Christian Slater (The Wife)
Sebastian Stan (Destroyer)
Corey Stoll (The Seagull)
Kiefer Sutherland (Where is Kyra?)
Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Outlaw King)
Stanley Tucci (The Children Act)
Stanley Tucci (A Private War)
John Turturro (Gloria)
Sam Waterston (On the Basis of Sex)
Dominic West (Colette)

1 comment:

Andrew R. said...

WILL/SHOULD WIN: Christoph Waltz
SNUBBED: Anthony Mackie, Alfred Molina