Sunday, March 11, 2018

BEST ACTRESS (91st)

"NEVER TOO EARLY" PREDICTIONS

MOST LIKELY

1. GLENN CLOSE (THE WIFE)

Role: Joan Castleman, a woman who experiences a crisis as she accompanies her husband to his Nobel Prize awarding

Oscar Record: 6 nominations, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Ever since this was announced some years back, prognosticators began to declare it as Glenn Close's chance to finally win an Oscar after six nominations. It was shown in limited release last year and pretty much confirmed it: yes, this is a slam dunk for Close and one of her best performances. It's been shelved until this year, when the Best Actress category is less crowded than last year's ultra-hot race. Let's hope the strategy pays off.

2. FELICITY JONES (ON THE BASIS OF SEX)

Role: Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Associate Justice of the US Supreme Court

Oscar Record: 1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Brit Felicity Jones is an interesting choice to play Ruth Bader Ginsburg (especially since they could have asked Kristen Wiig!), but this is a huge role that in a Glenn Close-free year would probably be an instant frontrunner. That could still happen, if Mimi Leder's direction gives Jones enough depth and intensity to draw the audience's attention.

LIKELY

3. SAOIRSE RONAN (MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS)

Role: Mary Stuart, cousin to Queen Elizabeth and usurper to the throne

Oscar Record: 3 nominations, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Saoirse Ronan could very well be her generation's Meryl Streep, with each performance being a potential Oscar nominee. On paper, this is an Oscar bait role, though the Elizabeths of cinema have certainly had much more luck there than the Mary Stuarts. But this is Ronan we're talking about. She was probably born to play this role. Here's to hoping that the film is a good one. This is her likeliest chance out of three potential contenders.

MAYBE

4. TONI COLLETTE (HEREDITARY)

Role: Annie Graham, whose family experiences bizarre incidents after her mother dies

Oscar Record: 1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Oscar has not been big on horror film performances lately, though Get Out and Daniel Kaluuya may have opened doors. Toni Collette was last nominated for a superb turn in another critically acclaimed horror film, Best Picture nominee The Sixth Sense. Critics have been raving about her performance here, saying it's Oscar-worthy. If the film catches on in general, including a Best Picture rally, then Collette could be a shoo-in.

POSSIBLE

5. CHARLIZE THERON (TULLY)

Role: Tully, an unconventional nanny

Oscar Record: 2 nominations, with a win for Monster

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

It's an April release and a comedy at that, but the triple combo of Jason Reitman, Diablo Cody, and Charlize Theron may prove to be comedic gold that the Academy can't ignore. The last time these three worked together, they gave us Young Adult, an insanely underrated gem that should have landed Theron her third nomination. This might be a less flashy role, but if critics and audiences are wowed, she might be able to sustain this all the way until January. But there's VERY tough competition from not only Emily Blunt (next on this list) but also (and maybe more so) from Taraji P. Henson, who'll likely bump Theron off my top five once The Best of Enemies gets a release date.

6. Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)

Role: Mary Poppins

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

7. KiKi Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk)

Role: Clementine "Tish" Rivers, who races to prove the innocence of her fiancé and father of her unborn child

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

8. Annette Bening (The Seagull)

Role: Irina Arkadina, an aging actress engaged in a complex web of love

Oscar Record: 4 nominations, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

9. Emma Stone (The Favourite)

Role: Abigail Masham, one of two cousins using seduction to curry favor with Queen Anne

Oscar Record: 2 nominations, with a win for La La Land

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

10. Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Role: Lee Israel, an author who later confesses to be a literary forger and thief

Oscar Record: 1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Potential Major Players Currently Without Distributors (any of these can easily displace the lower-ranked contenders above once release dates are officially announced):
Jessica Chastain (George and Tammy)
Jessica Chastain (Woman Walks Ahead)
Lily Collins (Extremely Wicked, Shockingly Evil and Vile
Penélope Cruz (Everybody Knows)
Elizabeth Debicki (Vita and Virginia)
Judi Dench (Red Joan)
Dakota Fanning (The Bell Jar)
Taraji P. Henson (The Best of Enemies)
Julianne Moore (Gloria)
Julianne Moore (My Life On the Road)
Emily Mortimer (The Bookshop)
Rosamund Pike (A Private War)
Daisy Ridley (Ophelia)

Other Contenders:
Annette Bening (Georgetown)
Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place)
Viola Davis (Widows)
Marina de Tavira (Roma)
Elle Fanning (A Rainy Day in New York)
Elle Fanning (I Think We're Alone Now)
Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade)
Claire Foy (Unsane)
Stefani Germanotta (A Star is Born)
Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Kindergarten Teacher)
Kathryn Hahn (Private Life)
Dakota Johnson (Suspiria)
Nicole Kidman (Destroyer)
Keira Knightley (Colette)
Rooney Mara (Mary Magdalene)
Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie (Leave No Trace)
Diane Lane (Serenity)
Danielle Macdonald (Dumplin')
Kelly Macdonald (Puzzle)
Chloë Grace Moretz (The Miseducation of Cameron Post)
Carey Mulligan (Wildlife)
Olga Kurylenko (The Man Who Killed Don Quixote)
Michelle Pfeiffer (Where is Kyra?)
Natalie Portman (Annihilation)
Andrea Riseborough (New York Winter Palace)
Julia Roberts (Ben is Back)
Saoirse Ronan (On Chesil Beach)
Saoirse Ronan (The Seagull)
Kristin Scott Thomas (The Party)
Chloë Sevigny (Lizzie)
Emma Thompson (The Children Act)
Tessa Thompson (Sorry to Bother You)
Mia Wasikowska (Damsel)
Rachel Weisz (Disobedience)

10 comments:

Andrew R. said...

Swank's performance in Amelia is not that good. She won't get nominated at all.

Ron Cruz said...

I'm really convinced that she's not going to get nominated, but I'm not ready to complete dismiss the possibility just yet, if only because many said the same thing about Blanchett's perf in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age" two years ago. But yeah, I suppose even Michelle Monaghan has a stronger chance now to get a slot.

Ponyboy said...

I would say Carey Mulligan is the front runner now. A third one for Streep? Hard to say.

Ron Cruz said...

I would have to disagree. Streep is the clear front-runner now, with Bullock nipping at her heels.

Ponyboy said...

mhm, things changed after yesterday. But for the Oscars, still don't think Bullock would have a chance.

The race is getting more interesting and unpredictable. Maybe there will be more surprises in Golden Globes. Bullock may defeat Mulligan again.

Andrew R. said...

WILL WIN: Sandra Bullock
SHOULD WIN: Carey Mulligan, though a win for Sibide or Streep is almost as good

SNUBBED: Abbie Cornish, Tilda Swinton

ana said...

No one can beat Cate Blanchett, not even Meryl, as much as I love her!
Blanchett's performance is beyond analysis, I can't even find words to describe her work in Blue Jasmine. On the other hand, I can't believe Sandra Bullock is even in the list of possible nominees!!

deepak sharma said...

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deepak sharma said...

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