Thursday, January 25, 2018

90th Academy Award Predictions (summary)

PREDICTIONS

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
The Shape of Water

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
James Ivory, based on the book by André Aciman (Call Me By Your Name)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor (The Shape of Water)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Lee Unkrich, Darla K. Anderson (Coco)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Agnès Varda, JR, Rosalie Varda (Faces Places)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
A Fantastic Woman (Chile)

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Roger Deakins (Blade Runner 2049)

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Mark Bridges (Phantom Thread)

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
Lee Smith (Dunkirk)

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Darkest Hour

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Alexandre Desplat (The Shape of Water)

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
"Remember Me" (Coco)

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN PRODUCTION DESIGN
Blade Runner 2049

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
Dunkirk

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
Dunkirk

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
War for the Planet of the Apes

Other Categories 2018

THE NOMINEES

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
James Ivory, based on the book by André Aciman (Call Me By Your Name)
Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber, based on the book by Greg Sestero, Tom Bissell (The Disaster Artist)
Scott Frank, James Mangold, Michael Green, based on characters created by Len Wein, Roy Thomas, John Romita, Sr., Herb Trimpe (Logan)
Aaron Sorkin, based on the book by Molly Bloom (Molly's Game)
Virgil Williams, Dee Rees based on the novel by Hillary Jordan (Mudbound)


PREDICTIONS SCORE: 5/5.

WILL WIN: Call Me By Your Name
SHOULD WIN: Call Me By Your Name
MIGHT UPSET: Mudbound
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Darkest Hour


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Emily V. Gordon, Kumail Nanjiani (The Big Sick)
Jordan Peele (Get Out)
Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor (The Shape of Water)
Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)


PREDICTIONS SCORE: 5/5.

WILL WIN: The Shape of Water
SHOULD WIN: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
MIGHT UPSET: Lady Bird
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: A Ghost Story

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Tom McGrath, Ramsey Naito (Boss Baby)
Nora Twomey, Anthony Leo (The Breadwinner)
Lee Unkrich, Darla K. Anderson (Coco)
Carlos Saldanha (Ferdinand)
Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman, Ivan Mactaggart (Loving Vincent)

PREDICTIONS SCORE: 4/5. Predicted The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales instead of Boss Baby.

WILL WIN: Coco
SHOULD WIN: Coco
MIGHT UPSET: Loving Vincent (very unlikely, though)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Steve James, Mark Mitten, Julie Goldman (Abacus: Small Enough to Jail)
Agnès Varda, JR and Rosalie Varda (Faces Places)
Bryan Fogel, Dan Cogan (Icarus)
Feras Fayyad, Kareem Abeed, Søren Steen Jespersen (Last Men in Aleppo)
Yance Ford, Joslyn Barnes (Strong Island)

PREDICTIONS SCORE: 2/5. Predicted Jane, City of Ghosts, and Chasing Coral instead of Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, Icarus, and Strong Island.

WILL WIN: Faces Places
MIGHT UPSET: Last Men in Aleppo
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Jane

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
The Insult (Lebanon)
Loveless (Russia)
On Body and Soul (Hungary)
The Square (Sweden)

PREDICTIONS SCORE: 3/5. Predicted In the Fade and Foxtrot instead of The Insult and On Body and Soul.

WILL WIN: A Fantastic Woman
MIGHT UPSET: On Body and Soul

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Roger A. Deakins (Blade Runner 2049)
Bruno Delbonnel (Darkest Hour)
Hoyte Van Hoytema (Dunkirk)
Rachel Morrison (Mudbound)
Dan Laustsen (The Shape of Water)

PREDICTIONS SCORE: 4/5. Predicted Call Me By Your Name instead of Mudbound.

WILL WIN: Blade Runner 2049
SHOULD WIN: Blade Runner 2049
MIGHT UPSET: The Shape of Water
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Call Me By Your Name

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Jacqueline Durran (Beauty and the Beast)
Jacqueline Durran (Darkest Hour)
Mark Bridges (Phantom Thread)
Luis Sequeira (The Shape of Water)
Consolata Boyle (Victoria and Abdul)

PREDICTIONS SCORE: 4/5. Predicted The Greatest Showman instead of Darkest Hour.

WILL WIN: Phantom Thread
SHOULD WIN: Phantom Thread
MIGHT UPSET: The Shape of Water
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: The Great Wall

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING

Paul Machliss, Jonathan Amos (Baby Driver)
Lee Smith (Dunkirk)
Tatiana S. Riegel (I, Tonya)
Sidney Wolinsky (The Shape of Water)
Jon Gregory (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

PREDICTIONS SCORE: 3/5. Predicted Blade Runner 2049 and Get Out instead of Baby Driver and I, Tonya.

WILL WIN: Dunkirk
SHOULD WIN: Dunkirk
MIGHT UPSET: The Shape of Water
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Get Out

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski, Lucy Sibbick (Darkest Hour)
Daniel Phillips, Lou Sheppard (Victoria and Abdul)
Arjen Tuiten (Wonder)

PREDICTIONS SCORE: 2/3. Predicted Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 instead of Victoria and Abdul.

WILL WIN: Darkest Hour
SHOULD WIN: Darkest Hour
MIGHT UPSET: Victoria and Abdul
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Bright

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Hans Zimmer (Dunkirk)
Jonny Greenwood (Phantom Thread)
Alexandre Desplat (The Shape of Water)
John Williams (Star Wars: The Last Jedi)
Carter Burwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

PREDICTIONS SCORE: 2/5. Predicted Blade Runner 2049, The Post, and Darkest Hour instead of Phantom Thread, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.

WILL WIN: The Shape of Water
SHOULD WIN: The Shape of Water
MIGHT UPSET: Dunkirk
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Wonderstruck

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
"The Mystery of Love" (Call Me By Your Name)
"Remember Me" (Coco)
"This Is Me" (The Greatest Showman)
"Stand Up For Something" (Marshall)
"Mighty River" (Mudbound)

PREDICTIONS SCORE: 4/5. Predicted "If I Dare" instead of "Stand Up For Something."

WILL WIN: "Remember Me"
SHOULD WIN: "This Is Me"
MIGHT UPSET: "Mighty River"
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: "Visions of Gideon" (Call Me By Your Name)

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN PRODUCTION DESIGN
Sarah Greenwood (Production Design); Katie Spencer (Set Decoration) (Beauty and the Beast)
Dennis Gassner (Production Design); Alessandra Querzola (Set Decoration) (Blade Runner 2049)
Sarah Greenwood (Production Design); Katie Spencer (Set Decoration) (Darkest Hour)
Nathan Crowley (Production Design); Gary Fettis (Set Decoration) (Dunkirk)
Paul Denham Austerberry (Production Design); Shane Vieau and Jeff Melvin (Set Decoration) (The Shape of Water)

PREDICTIONS SCORE: 4/5. Predicted The Greatest Showman instead of Darkest Hour.

WILL WIN: Blade Runner 2049
SHOULD WIN: Blade Runner 2049
MIGHT UPSET: The Shape of Water
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Wonder Woman

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
Julian Slater (Baby Driver)
Mark Mangini, Theo Green (Blade Runner 2049)
Richard King, Alex Gibson (Dunkirk)
Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira (The Shape of Water)
Matthew Wood, Ren Klyce (Star Wars: The Last Jedi)

PREDICTIONS SCORE: 4/5. Predicted War for the Planet of the Apes instead of The Shape of Water.

WILL WIN: Dunkirk
SHOULD WIN: Dunkirk
MIGHT UPSET: Star Wars: The Last Jedi

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin, Mary H. Ellis (Baby Driver)
Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill, Mac Ruth (Blade Runner 2049)
Mark Weingarten, Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo (Dunkirk)
Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern, Glen Gauthier (The Shape of Water)
David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce, Stuart Wilson (Star Wars: The Last Jedi)

PREDICTIONS SCORE: 4/5. Predicted War for the Planet of the Apes instead of Star Wars: The Last Jedi.

WILL WIN: Dunkirk
SHOULD WIN: Dunkirk
MIGHT UPSET: The Shape of Water


BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
John Nelson, Gerd Nefzer, Paul Lambert, Richard R. Hoover (Blade Runner 2049)
Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner, Dan Sudick (Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2)
Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza, Mike Meinardus (Kong: Skull Island)
Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Neal Scanlan, Chris Corbould (Star Wars: The Last Jedi)
Joe Letteri, Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon, Joel Whist (War for the Planet of the Apes)

PREDICTIONS SCORE: 3/5. Predicted The Shape of Water and Dunkirk instead of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Kong: Skull Island.

WILL WIN: War for the Planet of the Apes
SHOULD WIN: War for the Planet of the Apes
MIGHT UPSET: Blade Runner 2049
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Dunkirk


BEST DIRECTOR 2018

NOMINEES FOR BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING

CHRISTOPHER NOLAN (DUNKIRK)

Oscar Record: 
5 nominations (as director, producer, writer), no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Director, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Win, Best Director, Atlanta Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Director, Florida Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Director, Utah Film Critics Association
Win, Best Director, Online Film Critics Society
Win, Best Director, Phoenix Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Director, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Nomination, Best Director-Motion Picture, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globe Awards)
Nomination, Director, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)
Nomination, Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Feature Film, Directors Guild of America

JORDAN PEELE (GET OUT)

Oscar Record:
3 nominations (as director, writer, producer), no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Director, Philadelphia Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Director, North Carolina Film Critics Association
Win, Bingham Ray Breakthrough Director, Gotham Independent Film Awards
Nomination, Best Director, Film Independent Spirit Awards
Nomination, Best Director, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Nomination, Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Feature Film, Directors Guild of America
Nomination, Outstanding Directorial Achievement in First-Time Feature Film, Directors Guild of America

GRETA GERWIG (LADY BIRD)

Oscar Record:
2 nominations (as director, writer), no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Director, National Board of Review
Win, Best Director, San Diego Film Critics Society
Win, Best Director, Toronto Film Critics Association
Win, Best Director, Indiana Film Journalists Association
Win, Best Director, National Society of Film Critics
Win, Best Director, Houston Film Critics Society
Win, Best Director, Central Ohio Film Critics Association
Win, Best Director, Georgia Film Critics Association
Nomination, Bingham Ray Breakthrough Director, Gotham Independent Film Awards
Nomination, Best Director, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Nomination, Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Feature Film, Directors Guild of America

PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON (PHANTOM THREAD)

Oscar Record:
8 nominations (as director, producer, writer), no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Director, Boston Online Film Critics Association

GUILLERMO DEL TORO (THE SHAPE OF WATER)

Oscar Record:
4 nominations (as director, writer, producer), no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Director, Los Angeles Film Critics Association
Win, Best Director, San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Director, Kansas City Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Director, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Win, Best Director, St. Louis Film Critics Association
Win, Best Director, Nevada Film Critics Society
Win, Best Director, Southeastern Film Critics Association
Win, Best Director, Austin Film Critics Association
Win, Best Director, Las Vegas Film Critics Society
Win, Best Director-Motion Picture, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globe Awards)
Win, Best Director, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Win, Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Feature Film, Directors Guild of America
Win, Director, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

PREDICTIONS SCORE: 3/5. Predicted Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) and Steven Spielberg (The Post) instead of Peele and Anderson (who I placed in 6th and 10th, respectively).

WILL WIN: del Toro
SHOULD WIN: Nolan
MIGHT UPSET: Gerwig
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Luca Guadagnino (Call Me By Your Name)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 2018

THE NOMINEES FOR BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

WILLEM DAFOE (THE FLORIDA PROJECT)

Oscar Record:
3 nominations, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Supporting Actor, New York Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Supporting Actor, National Board of Review
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Boston Online Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Los Angeles Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Boston Society of Film Critics
Win, Best Supporting Actor, New York Film Critics Online
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Detroit Film Critics Society
Win, Best Supporting Actor, San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Kansas City Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Toronto Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Atlanta Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Indiana Film Journalists Association
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Utah Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actor, National Society of Film Critics
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Austin Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actor, North Carolina Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Central Ohio Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Georgia Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Actor, Gotham Independent Film Awards
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globe Awards)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Supporting Actor, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

WOODY HARRELSON (THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI)

Oscar Record:
2 nominations, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Philadelphia Film Critics Circle
Win, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Supporting Actor, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

RICHARD JENKINS (THE SHAPE OF WATER)

Oscar Record: 
2 nominations, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Supporting Actor, St. Louis Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globe Awards)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role, Screen Actors Guild

CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER (ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD)

Oscar Record:
3 nominations, with a win for Beginners

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globe Awards)

SAM ROCKWELL (THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI)

Oscar Record:
1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actor, San Diego Film Critics Society
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Florida Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Nevada Film Critics Society
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Southeastern Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Online Film Critics Society
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Houston Film Critics Society
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Phoenix Critics Circle
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Las Vegas Film Critics Society
Win, Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globe Awards)
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Win, Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role, Screen Actors Guild
Win, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild
Win, Supporting Actor, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)
Nomination, Best Supporting Male, Film Independent Spirit Awards

PREDICTIONS SCORE: 4/5. Predicted Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name) instead of Plummer.

WILL WIN: Rockwell
SHOULD WIN: Rockwell
MIGHT UPSET: Dafoe
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Hammer

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 2018

THE NOMINEES FOR BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

MARY J. BLIGE (MUDBOUND)

Oscar Record:
1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Breakthrough Actor, Gotham Independent Film Awards
Nomination, Best Supporting Actress, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globe Awards)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild

ALLISON JANNEY (I, TONYA)

Oscar Record: 
1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Supporting Actress, New York Film Critics Online
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Detroit Film Critics Society
Win, Best Supporting Actress, San Diego Film Critics Society
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Philadelphia Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Florida Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Nevada Film Critics Society
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Houston Film Critics Society
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Austin Film Critics Association
Win, Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globe Awards)
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Win, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role, Screen Actors Guild
Win, Supporting Actress, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)
Nomination, Best Supporting Female, Film Independent Spirit Awards

LESLEY MANVILLE (PHANTOM THREAD)

Oscar Record:

1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Supporting Actress of the Year, London Critics' Circle
Nomination, Supporting Actress, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

LAURIE METCALF (LADY BIRD)

Oscar Record: 
1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Supporting Actress, National Board of Review
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Los Angeles Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Boston Online Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Boston Society of Film Critics
Win, Best Supporting Actress, San Diego Film Critics Society
Win, Best Supporting Actress, San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Kansas City Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Toronto Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Atlanta Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Supporting Actress, St. Louis Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Indiana Film Journalists Association
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Southeastern Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actress, National Society of Film Critics
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Online Film Critics Society
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Phoenix Critics Circle
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Las Vegas Film Critics Society
Win, Best Supporting Actress, North Carolina Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Central Ohio Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Georgia Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Supporting Female, Film Independent Spirit Awards
Nomination, Best Supporting Actress, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globe Awards)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Supporting Actress, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

OCTAVIA SPENCER (THE SHAPE OF WATER)

Oscar Record:
3 nominations, with a win for The Help

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Supporting Actress, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globe Awards)
Nomination, Supporting Actress, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

PREDICTIONS SCORE: 3/5. Predicted Holly Hunter (The Big Sick) and Hong Chau (Downsizing) instead of Manville and Blige (who I placed in 6th and 7th, respectively).

WILL WIN: Janney
SHOULD WIN: Metcalf
MIGHT UPSET: Metcalf
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Chau

BEST ACTOR 2018

THE NOMINEES FOR BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET (CALL ME BY YOUR NAME)

Oscar Record: 
1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Actor, New York Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Actor, Boston Online Film Critics Association
Win, Best Actor, Los Angeles Film Critics Association
Win, Best Actor, Kansas City Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Actor, Atlanta Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Actor, Florida Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Actor, Phoenix Critics Circle
Win, Best Actor, Austin Film Critics Association
Win, Breakthrough Actor, Gotham Independent Film Awards
Win, Actor of the Year, London Critics' Circle
Nomination, Best Male Lead, Film Independent Spirit Awards
Nomination, Best Actor, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture-Drama, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globe Awards)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Leading Actor, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

DANIEL DAY-LEWIS (PHANTOM THREAD)

Oscar Record:
6 nominations, with wins for My Left Foot, There Will Be Blood, Lincoln

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Actor, Toronto Film Critics Association
Win, Best Actor, Philadelphia Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Actor, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture-Drama, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globe Awards)
Nomination, Leading Actor, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

DANIEL KALUUYA (GET OUT)

Oscar Record:
1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Actor, Boston Society of Film Critics
Win, Best Actor, National Society of Film Critics
Win, Best Actor, Las Vegas Critics Society
Win, Best Actor, Georgia Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Actor, Gotham Independent Film Awards
Nomination, Best Male Lead, Film Independent Spirit Awards
Nomination, Best Actor, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture-Musical or Comedy, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globe Awards)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Leading Actor, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

GARY OLDMAN (DARKEST HOUR)

Oscar Record:
2 nominations, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Actor, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Win, Best Actor, New York Film Critics Online
Win, Best Actor, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Win, Best Actor, St. Louis Film Critics Association
Win, Best Actor, Nevada Film Critics Society
Win, Best Actor, Southeastern Film Critics Association
Win, Best Actor, Online Film Critics Society
Win, Best Actor, North Carolina Film Critics Association
Win, Best Actor, Central Ohio Film Critics Association
Win, Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture-Drama, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globe Awards)
Win, Best Actor, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Win, Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role, Screen Actors Guild
Win, Leading Actor, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

DENZEL WASHINGTON (ROMAN J. ISRAEL, ESQ.)

Oscar Record:
8 nominations (as actor), with wins for Glory, Training Day

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture-Drama, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globe Awards)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role, Screen Actors Guild

PREDICTIONS SCORE: 4/5. Predicted James Franco (The Disaster Artist) instead of Washington (who I placed in 8th).

WILL WIN: Oldman
SHOULD WIN: Chalamet
MIGHT UPSET: Day-Lewis
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Andy Serkis (War for the Planet of the Apes)

Wednesday, January 24, 2018

BEST ACTRESS 2018

THE NOMINEES FOR BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

SALLY HAWKINS (THE SHAPE OF WATER)

Oscar Record:

2 nominations, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Actress, Los Angeles Film Critics Association
Win, Best Actress, Boston Society of Film Critics
Win, Best Actress, Kansas City Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Actress, Philadelphia Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Actress, Atlanta Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Actress, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Win, Best Actress, Nevada Film Critics Society
Win, Best Actress, Southeastern Film Critics Association
Win, Best Actress, Utah Film Critics Association
Win, Best Actress, National Society of Film Critics
Win, Best Actress, Online Film Critics Society
Win, Best Actress, Houston Film Critics Society
Win, Best Actress, Phoenix Critics Circle
Win, Best Actress, North Carolina Film Critics Association
Win, Best Actress, Central Ohio Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Actress, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture-Drama, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globe Awards)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Leading Actress, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

FRANCES MCDORMAND (THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI)

Oscar Record:
5 nominations, with a win for Fargo

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Actress, Boston Online Film Critics Association
Win, Best Actress, Detroit Film Critics Society
Win, Best Actress, Toronto Film Critics Association
Win, Best Actress, St. Louis Film Critics Association
Win, Best Actress, Phoenix Critics Circle
Win, Best Actress, Austin Film Critics Association
Win, Best Actress, Las Vegas Film Critics Society
Win, Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture-Drama, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globe Awards)
Win, Best Actress, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Win, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role, Screen Actors Guild
Win, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild
Win, Actress of the Year, London Critics' Circle
Win, Leading Actress, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)
Nomination, Best Female Lead, Film Independent Spirit Awards

MARGOT ROBBIE (I, TONYA)

Oscar Record:
1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Actress, New York Film Critics Online
Win, Best Actress, San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Actress, Florida Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Actress, Gotham Independent Film Awards
Nomination, Best Female Lead, Film Independent Spirit Awards
Nomination, Best Actress, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture-Musical or Comedy, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globe Awards)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Leading Actress, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

SAOIRSE RONAN (LADY BIRD)

Oscar Record:
3 nominations, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Actress, New York Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Actress, Indiana Film Journalists Association
Win, Best Actress, Georgia Film Critics Association
Win, Best Actress, Gotham Independent Film Awards
Win, Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture-Musical or Comedy, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globe Awards)
Nomination, Best Female Lead, Film Independent Spirit Awards
Nomination, Best Actress, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Leading Actress, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

MERYL STREEP (THE POST)

Oscar Record:
21 nominations, with wins for Kramer vs. Kramer, Sophie's Choice, Iron Lady

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Actress, National Board of Review
Nomination, Best Actress, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture-Drama, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globe Awards)

PREDICTIONS SCORE: 5/5.

WILL WIN: McDormand
SHOULD WIN: Hawkins
MIGHT UPSET: Hawkins
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes)

BEST PICTURE 2018

THE NOMINEES FOR BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR

CALL ME BY YOUR NAME (Sony Pictures Classics)

Director: Luca Guadagnino
Writer: James Ivory, based on the book by André Aciman
Producers: Emilie Georges, Luca Guadagnino, James Ivory, Marco Morabito, Howard Rosenman, Peter Spears, Rodrigo Teixeira
Cast: Timothée Chalamet, Armie Hammer, Michael Stuhlbarg, Amira Casar

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Picture, Los Angeles Film Critics Association
Win, Movie of the Year, American Film Institute
Win, Best Feature, Gotham Independent Film Awards
Nomination, Best Feature, Film Independent Spirit Awards
Nomination, Best Picture, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Nomination, Best Motion Picture-Drama, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globe Awards)
Nomination, The Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America
Nomination, Best Film, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

Other Oscar Nominations (3):
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Achievement in Music (Original Song)

DARKEST HOUR (Focus Features)

Director: Joe Wright
Writer: Anthony McCarten
Producers: Tim Bevan, Lisa Bruce, Eric Fellner, Anthony McCarten, Douglas Urbanski
Cast: Gary Oldman, Kristin Scott Thomas, Lily James, Ben Mendelsohn

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Picture, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Nomination, Best Film, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)
Nomination, Outstanding British Film, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

Other Oscar Nominations (5):
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Best Achievement in Cinematography
Best Achievement in Costume Design
Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling
Best Achievement in Production Design

DUNKIRK (Warner Bros.)

Director: Christopher Nolan
Writers: Christopher Nolan
Producers: Christopher Nolan, Emma Thomas
Cast: Fionn Whitehead, Barry Keoghan, Tom Hardy, Mark Rylance, Kenneth Branagh

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Picture, Florida Film Critics Circle
Win, Movie of the Year, American Film Institute
Nomination, Best Picture, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Nomination, Best Motion Picture-Drama, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globe Awards)
Nomination, The Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America
Nomination, Best Film, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

Other Oscar Nominations (7):
Best Achievement in Directing
Best Achievement in Cinematography
Best Achievement in Film Editing
Best Achievement in Music (Original Score)
Best Achievement in Production Design
Best Achievement in Sound Editing
Best Achievement in Sound Mixing

GET OUT (Universal Pictures)

Director: Jordan Peele
Writer: Jordan Peele
Producers: Jason Blum, Edward H. Hamm Jr., Sean McKittrick, Jordan Peele
Cast: Daniel Kaluuya, Allison Williams, Bradley Whitford, Catherine Keener

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Picture, Boston Online Film Critics Association
Win, Best Picture, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Win, Best Picture, San Diego Film Critics Society
Win, Best Picture, Kansas City Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Picture, Philadelphia Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Picture, Atlanta Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Picture, Southeastern Film Critics Association
Win, Best Picture, Online Film Critics Society
Win, Best Picture, Austin Film Critics Association
Win, Best Picture, North Carolina Film Critics Association
Win, Movie of the Year, American Film Institute
Nomination, Best Feature, Gotham Independent Film Awards
Nomination, Best Feature, Film Independent Spirit Awards
Nomination, Best Picture, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Nomination, Best Motion Picture-Musical or Comedy, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globe Awards)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, The Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America

Other Oscar Nominations (3):
Best Achievement in Directing
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Best Original Screenplay

LADY BIRD (A24)

Director: Greta Gerwig
Writer: Greta Gerwig
Producers: Eli Bush, Evelyn O'Neill, Scott Rudin
Cast: Saoirse Ronan, Laurie Metcalf, Timothée Chalamet, Lucas Hedges, Tracy Letts

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Picture, New York Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Picture, Indiana Film Journalists Association
Win, Movie of the Year, American Film Institute
Win, Best Picture, National Society of Film Critics
Win, Best Picture, Houston Film Critics Society
Win, Best Picture, North Carolina Film Critics Association
Win, Best Picture, Central Ohio Film Critics Association
Win, Best Picture, Georgia Film Critics Association
Win, Best Motion Picture-Musical or Comedy, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globe Awards)
Nomination, Best Feature, Film Independent Spirit Awards
Nomination, Best Picture, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, The Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America

Other Oscar Nominations (4):
Best Achievement in Directing
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Best Original Screenplay

PHANTOM THREAD (Focus Features)

Director: Paul Thomas Anderson
Writer: Paul Thomas Anderson
Producers: Paul Thomas Anderson, Megan Ellison, Daniel Lupi, JoAnne Sellar
Cast: Daniel Day Lewis, Vicky Krieps, Lesley Manville

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Picture, Boston Society of Film Critics

Other Oscar Nominations (5):
Best Achievement in Directing
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Best Achievement in Costume Design
Best Achievement in Music (Original Score)

THE POST (Twentieth Century Fox)

Director: Steven Spielberg
Writers: Liz Hannah, Josh Singer
Producers: Amy Pascal, Steven Spielberg
Cast: Tom Hanks, Meryl Streep, Sarah Paulson, Bob Odenkirk, Tracy Letts, Bradley Whitford, Bruce Greenwood

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Picture, National Board of Review
Win, Movie of the Year, American Film Institute
Nomination, Best Picture, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Nomination, Best Motion Picture-Drama, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globe Awards)
Nomination, The Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America

Other Oscar Nominations (1):
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

THE SHAPE OF WATER (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

Director: Guillermo del Toro
Writers: Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
Producers: J. Miles Dale, Guillermo del Toro
Cast: Sally Hawkins, Octavia Spencer, Richard Jenkins, Michael Shannon, Doug Jones, Michael Stuhlbarg

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Golden Lion, Venice Film Festival
Win, Best Picture, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Win, Best Picture, St. Louis Film Critics Association
Win, Best Picture, Phoenix Film Critics Circle
Win, Movie of the Year, American Film Institute
Win, Best Picture, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Win, The Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America
Nomination, Best Film, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)
Nomination, Best Motion Picture-Drama, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globe Awards)

Other Oscar Nominations (12):
Best Achievement in Directing
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Best Original Screenplay
Best Achievement in Cinematography
Best Achievement in Costume Design
Best Achievement in Film Editing
Best Achievement in Music (Original Score)
Best Achievement in Production Design
Best Achievement in Sound Editing
Best Achievement in Sound Mixing

THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

Director: Martin McDonagh
Writers: Martin McDonagh
Producers: Graham Broadbent, Peter Czernin, Martin McDonagh
Cast: Frances McDormand, Sam Rockwell, Woody Harrelson, Abbie Cornish, Lucas Hedges

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, People's Choice Award, Toronto International Film Festival
Win, Best Picture, Nevada Film Critics Society
Win, Best Picture, Las Vegas Film Critics Society 
Win, Movie of the Year, American Film Institute
Win, Best Motion Picture-Drama, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globe Awards)
Win, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild
Win, Film of the Year, London Critics' Circle
Win, Best Film, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

Win, Outstanding British Film, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)
Nomination, Best Picture, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Nomination, The Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America

Other Oscar Nominations (6):
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Best Original Screenplay
Best Achievement in Film Editing
Best Achievement in Music (Original Score)

PREDICTIONS SCORE: 8/9. Predicted I, Tonya instead of Phantom Thread (which I placed in 12th).

WILL WIN: The Shape of Water
SHOULD WIN: Dunkirk
MIGHT UPSET: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: War for the Planet of the Apes