Friday, March 23, 2018

PREDICTIONS IN ALL CATEGORIES (91st)

"NEVER TOO EARLY" PREDICTIONS

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
On the Basis of Sex
Backseat
Beautiful Boy
Boy Erased
Where'd You Go, Bernadette
Black Panther
Isle of Dogs
Hereditary

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Damien Chazelle (First Man)
Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Adam McKay (Backseat)
Mimi Leder (On the Basis of Sex)
Richard Linklater (Where'd You Go, Bernadette)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Ryan Gosling (First Man)
Christian Bale (Backseat)
Steve Carell (Beautiful Boy)
Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased)
Stephan James (If Beale Street Could Talk)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Felicity Jones (On the Basis of Sex)
Saoirse Ronan (Mary Queen of Scots)
Toni Collette (Hereditary)
Charlize Theron (Tully)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
Colman Domingo (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Joel Edgerton (Boy Erased)
Sam Rockwell (Backseat)
Russell Crowe (Boy Erased)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Cate Blanchett (Where'd You Go, Bernadette)
Amy Adams (Backseat)
Claire Foy (First Man)
Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots)
Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Adam McKay (Backseat)
Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Kunichi Nomura, Jason Schwartzman (Isle of Dogs)
Diablo Cody (Tully)
Daniel Stiepleman (On the Basis of Sex)
Oja Kodar, Orson Welles (The Other Side of the Wind)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Barry Jenkins, based on the novel by James Baldwin (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Josh Singer, based on the book by James R. Hansen (First Man)
Richard Linklater, Holly Gent Palmo, Vincent Palmo Jr., based on the novel by Maria Semple (Where'd You Go, Bernadette)
Luke Davies, based on the memoirs by David Sheff and Nic Sheff (Beautiful Boy)
Ryan Coogler, Joe Robert Cole, based on characters created by Stan Lee, Jack Kirby (Black Panther)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Isle of Dogs (Wes Anderson)
Incredibles 2 (Brad Bird)
Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 (Phil Johnston, Rich Moore)
The Grinch (Yarrow Cheney, Scott Mosier)
Smallfoot (Karey Kirkpatrick)

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Rachel Morrison (Black Panther)
John Mathieson (Mary Queen of Scots)
Dion Beebe (Mary Poppins Returns)
Nicole Pecorini (The Man Who Killed Don Quixote)
Linus Sandgren (First Man)

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Alexandra Byrne (Mary Queen of Scots)
Sandy Powell (Mary Poppins Returns)
Sandy Powell (The Favourite)
Ann Roth (The Seagull)
Ruth E. Carter (Black Panther)

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
Tom Cross (First Man)
Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Debbie Berman, Michael P. Shawver (Black Panther)
Bob Murawski, Orson Welles (The Other Side of the Wind)
Chris Dickens, Pietro Scalia (Solo: A Star Wars Story)

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Mary Queen of Scots
Backseat
Mary Poppins Returns

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Alexandre Desplat (Isle of Dogs)
Justin Hurwitz (First Man)
Marc Shaiman, Scott Whittman (Mary Poppins Returns)
Michel Legrand (The Other Side of the World)
Ludwig Göransson (Black Panther)

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN PRODUCTION DESIGN
Neil Lamont, David Crossman, Glyn Dillon (Solo: A Star Wars Story)
James Merifield, Gina Cromwell (Mary Queen of Scots)
John Myhre, Gordon Sim (Mary Poppins Returns)
Hannah Beachler, Jay Hart (Black Panther)
Inbal Weinberg, Christin Busse, Merissa Lombardo (Suspiria)

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
Ready Player One
Black Panther
Incredibles 2
Avengers: Infinity War
Mission: Impossible - Fallout

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
Mary Poppins Returns
Black Panther
Ready Player One
Isle of Dogs
The Other Side of the Wind

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
Ready Player One
Mowgli
Black Panther
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Avengers: Infinity War

Nominations Tally:
Black Panther - 10
First Man - 8
Backseat - 7
If Beale Street Could Talk - 6
Mary Poppins Returns - 6
Mary Queen of Scots - 6
Boy Erased - 5
Isle of Dogs - 5
On the Basis of Sex - 5
Beautiful Boy - 4
The Other Side of the Wind - 4
Where'd You Go, Bernadette - 4
Ready Player One - 3
Solo: A Star Wars Story - 3
Avengers: Infinity War - 2
Hereditary - 2
Incredibles 2 - 2
Tully - 2
The Favourite - 1
The Grinch  -1
The Man Who Killed Don Quixote - 1
Mission: Impossible - Fallout - 1
Mowgli - 1
Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 - 1
The Seagull - 1
Smallfoot - 1
Suspiria - 1
The Wife - 1

TECHNICAL CATEGORIES (91st)

"NEVER TOO EARLY" PREDICTIONS

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. Rachel Morrison (Black Panther)
2. John Mathieson (Mary Queen of Scots)
3. Dion Beebe (Mary Poppins Returns)
4. Nicole Pecorini (The Man Who Killed Don Quixote)
5. Linus Sandgren (First Man)

6. Sayombhu Mukdeeprom (Suspiria)
7. James Laxton (If Beale Street Could Talk)
8. Janusz Kaminski (Ready Player One)
9. Robbie Ryan (The Favourite)
10. Rob Hardy (Annihilation)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. Alexandra Byrne (Mary Queen of Scots)
2. Sandy Powell (Mary Poppins Returns)
3. Sandy Powell (The Favourite)
4. Ann Roth (The Seagull)
5. Ruth E. Carter (Black Panther)

6. David Crossman, Glyn Dillon (Solo: A Star Wars Story)
7. Giulia Piersanti (Suspiria)
8. Milena Canonero (The Sisters Brothers)
9. Lena Mossum (The Man Who Killed Don Quixote)
10. Mary Zophres (First Man)

BEST FILM EDITING
1. Tom Cross (First Man)
2. Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders (If Beale Street Could Talk)
3. Debbie Berman, Michael P. Shawver (Black Panther)
4. Bob Murawski, Orson Welles (The Other Side of the Wind)
5. Chris Dickens, Pietro Scalia (Solo: A Star Wars Story)

6. Teresa Font, Lesley Walker (The Man Who Killed Don Quixote)
7. Eddie Hamilton (Mission: Impossible - Fallout)
8. Sarah Broshar, Michael Kahn (Ready Player One)
9. Sandra Adair (Where'd You Go, Bernadette)
10. Barney Pilling (Annihilation)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
1. Mary Queen of Scots
2. Backseat
3. Mary Poppins Returns

4. The Man Who Killed Don Quixote
5. The Favourite
6. Suspiria
7. Solo: A Star Wars Story
8. Bohemian Rhapsody
9. Stan and Ollie
10. On the Basis of Sex

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Alexandre Desplat (Isle of Dogs)
2. Justin Hurwitz (First Man)
3. Marc Shaiman, Scott Whittman (Mary Poppins Returns)
4. Michel Legrand (The Other Side of the World)
5. Ludwig Göransson (Black Panther)

6. Alan Silvestri (Ready Player One)
7. Nicholas Britell (If Beale Street Could Talk)
8. Michael Giacchino (Incredibles 2)
9. John Powell (Solo: A Star Wars Story)
10. Roque Baños (The Man Who Killed Don Quixote)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
SOON!

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Neil Lamont, David Crossman, Glyn Dillon (Solo: A Star Wars Story)
2. James Merifield, Gina Cromwell (Mary Queen of Scots)
3. John Myhre, Gordon Sim (Mary Poppins Returns)
4. Hannah Beachler, Jay Hart (Black Panther)
5. Inbal Weinberg, Christin Busse, Merissa Lombardo (Suspiria)

6. Benjamin Fernandez (The Man Who Killed Don Quixote)
7. Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas (First Man)
8. Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton (The Favourite)
9. Adam Stockhausen, Anna Pinnock (Ready Player One)
10. Grace Yun, Brian Lives (Hereditary)

BEST SOUND EDITING
1. Ready Player One
2. Black Panther
3. Incredibles 2
4. Avengers: Infinity War
5. Mission: Impossible - Fallout

6. Mortal Engines
7. Solo: A Star Wars Story
8. Pacific Rim: Uprising
9. Jurassic Park: Fallen Kingdom
10. Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2

BEST SOUND MIXING
1. Mary Poppins Returns
2. Black Panther
3. Ready Player One
4. Isle of Dogs
5. The Other Side of the Wind

6. First Man
7. Mission: Impossible - Fallout
8. Incredibles 2
9. Avengers: Infinity War
10. Solo: A Star Wars Story

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Ready Player One
2. Mowgli
3. Black Panther
4. Solo: A Star Wars Story
5. Avengers: Infinity War

6. Mortal Engines
7. Annihilation
8. A Wrinkle in Time
9. Jurassic Park: Fallen Kingdom
10. Pacific Rim: Uprising

Sunday, March 18, 2018

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE (91st)

SOON!

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM (91st)

SOON!

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE (91st)

"NEVER TOO EARLY" PREDICTIONS

ESSENTIAL LOCKS

1. ISLE OF DOGS (23 March, Fox Searchlight Pictures)
Director: Wes Anderson
Writers: Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Kunichi Nomura, Jason Schwartzman
Producers: Wes Anderson, Jeremy Dawson, Steven Rales, Scott Rudin
Cast: Bryan Cranston, Koyu Rankin, Edward Norton, Liev Schreiber, Greta Gerwig, Tracy Walker, Bill Murray, Jeff Goldblum, Bob Balaban, Scarlett Johansson, Courtney B. Vance, Kunichi Nomura, Tilda Swinton

Plot (IMDb): Set in Japan, Isle of Dogs follows a boy's odyssey in search of his dog.

Pre-Oscars Citations:
None

This could easily end up being one of the most critically acclaimed films (animated or otherwise) of the year and may get a Best Picture nomination. The anticipation for it is very high among cineastes. A nomination is a pretty sure bet, but a win would be hard because of Incredibles 2.

2. INCREDIBLES 2 (15 June, Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
Director: Brad Bird
Writer: Brad Bird
Producers: Nicole Paradis Grindle, John Walker
Cast: Holly Hunter, Craig T. Nelson, Samuel L. Jackson, Catherine Keener, Sophia Bush, Jonathan Banks, Bob Odenkirk, Isabella Rossellini, John Ratzenberger, Brad Bird, Sarah Vowell, Huck Milner

Plot (IMDb): Bob Parr (Mr. Incredible) is left to care for Jack-Jack while Helen (Elastigirl) is out saving the world.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Finally, the long-anticipated sequel of the much-loved blockbuster The Incredibles is finally upon us. It's very unlikely that it's going to end up being a disappointment, so a nomination is practically a done deal at this point. If it really wows, look for it to win this category over the less mainstream Isle of Dogs.

MOST LIKELY

3. RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET: WRECK-IT-RALPH 2 (21 November, Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
Directors: Phil Johnston, Rich Moore
Writers: Phil Johnston, Pamela Ribon
Producer: Clark Spencer
Cast: John C. Reilly, Sarah Silverman, Kristen Bell, Taraji P. Henson, Mandy Moore, Auli'l Cravalho, Kelly Macdonald, Allan Tudyk, Ming-Na Wen, Idina Menzel, Ed O'Neill, Jane Lynch, Anika Noni Rose, Jodi Benson

Plot (IMDb): Six years after the events of "Wreck-It Ralph," Ralph and Vanellope, now friends, discover a wi-fi router in their arcade, leading them into a new adventure.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Another sequel of another highly regarded animated film. This looks like it's going to be even more fun, and the addition of the Disney princesses may prove to be irresistible to the voters. This one can even upset.

MAYBE

4. THE GRINCH (9 November, Universal Pictures)
Directors: Yarrow Cheney, Scott Mosier
Writer: Michael LeSieur, based on the book by Dr. Seuss
Producers: Christopher Melendandri, Scott Mosier
Cast: Benedict Cumberbatch

Plot (IMDb): A grumpy Grinch plots to ruin Christmas for the village of Whoville.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Could be a hit. Certainly doesn't hurt that Benedict Cumberbatch, whose voice is so distinct, will be voicing the Grinch.

POSSIBLE

5. SMALLFOOT (28 September, Warner Bros.)
Director: Karey Kirkpatrick
Writers: Glenn Ficarra, Karey Kirkpatrick, Sergio Pablos, John Requa
Producers: Glenn Ficarra, Bonne Radford, John Requa
Cast: Zendaya, Gina Rodriguez, Channing Tatum, Common, Danny DeVito, James Corden

Plot (IMDb): A Yeti is convinced that the elusive creatures known as "humans" really do exist.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

The plot sounds like a lot of fun and probably has not-so-subtle digs at the lack of inclusivity and tolerance in today's society. It's got a pretty mean voice cast, too.

6. Early Man (16 February, Lionsgate)
Director: Nick Park
Writers: Mark Burton, James Higginson
Producers: Richard Beek, Peter Lord, Nick Park, Carla Shelley, David Sproxton
Cast: Tom Hiddleston, Eddie Redmayne, Maisie Williams

Plot (IMDb): Set at the dawn of time, when prehistoric creatures and woolly mammoths roamed the earth, Early Man tells the story of Dug, along with sidekick Hognob as they unite his tribe against a mighty enemy Lord Nooth and his Bronze Age City to save their home.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

7. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (14 December, Columbia Pictures, Sony Pictures Releasing)
Directors: Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman
Writer: Phil Lord, based on characters created by Brian Michael Bendis, Steve Ditko, Stan Lee, Sara Pichelli
Producer: Christina Steinberg 
Cast: Shameik Moore, Mahershala Ali, Liev Schreiber, Brian Tyree Henry

Plot: Miles Morales meets other Spider-Mans from the Spider-verse.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

8. Batman Ninja (24 April, Warner Bros.)
Director: Junpei Mizusaki
Writers: Leo Chu, Eric Garcia, Kazuki Nakashima, based on characters created by Bill Finger, Bob Kane
Producers: Leo Chu, Kamikaze Douga, Eric Garcia
Cast: Kôichi Yamadera, Wataru Takagi, Rie Kugimiya, Ai Kakuma, Hôchû Ôtsuka

Plot (IMDb): Batman, along with a number of his allies and adversaries, finds himself transplanted from modern Gotham City to feudal Japan.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

9. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (27 July, Warner Bros.)
Directors: Aaron Horvath, Peter Rida Michail
Writers: Aaron Horvath, Michael Jelenic, based on characters created by Bob Haney, Bruno Premiani, Aaron Horvath, Michael Jelenic
Producers: Will Arnett, Peter Rida Michail, Peggy Regan
Cast: Nicolas Cage, Kristen Bell, Halsey, James Corden, Will Arnett, Khary Payton, Tara Strong, Greg Cipes, Hynden Walch, Scott Menville, Lil Yachty

Plot (IMDb): A villain's maniacal plan for world domination sidetracks five teenage superheroes who dream of Hollywood stardom.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

10. Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero (13 April, Hero Fun Academy Motion Pictures)
Director: Richard Lanni
Writers: Richard Lanni, Mike Stokey
Producers: Emily Cantrill, Laurent Rodon
Cast: Helena Bonham Carter, Logan Lerman, Gérard Depardieu

Plot (IMDb): The true story of the most decorated dog in American military history -- Sgt. Stubby -- and the enduring bonds he forged with his brothers-in-arms in the trenches of World War I.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Other Contenders:
The Ark and the Aardvark
Attack on Titan: The Roar of Awakening
Boonie Bears: The Big Shrink
Death of Superman
Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer
Doraemon the Movie: Nobita's Treasure Island
Duck, Duck, Goose
Fireworks
Hodja and the Magic Carpet
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation
Inzomnia
The Legend of Charro Negro
The Legend of Muay Thai: 9 Satra
Lu Over the Wall
Luis and the Aliens
Maquia: When the Promised Flower Blooms
Marcianos vs. Mexicanos
Marvel Rising: Secret Warriors
Maya the Bee: The Honey Games
Mirai of the Future
The Night Is Short, Walk on Girl
Pokémon the Movie: Everyone's Story
Sherlock Gnomes
Troll: The Tail of a Tail
Uru in Blue
White Fang

Monday, March 12, 2018

BEST ADAPTED SCREEPLAY (91st)

"NEVER TOO EARLY" PREDICTIONS

MOST LIKELY

1. BARRY JENKINS, based on the novel by James Baldwin (IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK)

Oscar Record: 2 nominations (as director, writer), with a win for writing Moonlight

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

2. JOSH SINGER, based on the book by James R. Hansen (FIRST MAN)

Oscar Record: 1 nomination and win for writing Spotlight

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

LIKELY

3. RICHARD LINKLATER, HOLLY GENT PALMO, VINCENT PALMO JR., based on the novel by Marie Semple (WHERE'D YOU GO, BERNADETTE)

Oscar Records:
Linklater: 5 nominations (as director, writer, producer) no win
H. Palmo: No nomination
V. Palmo: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

MAYBE

4. LUKE DAVIES, based on the memoirs by David Sheff and Nic Sheff (BEAUTIFUL BOY)

Oscar Record: 1 nomination (as writer), no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

POSSIBLE

5. RYAN COOGLER, JOE ROBERT COLE, baed on characters created by Stan Lee, Jack Kirby (BLACK PANTHER)

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

6. Joel Edgerton, based on the book by Garrard Conley (Boy Erased)

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

7. Brad Bird, based on characters created by Brad Bird (Incredibles 2)

Oscar Record: 4 nominations (as writer and for animated feature), with wins for The Incredibles and Ratatouille

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

8. Fabien Nury, Armando Iannucci, David Schneider, Ian Martin, based on the comic book by Fabien Nury, Thierry Robin (The Death of Stalin)

Oscar Records:
Nury: No nomination
Iannucci: 1 nomination (as writer), no win
Schneider: No nomination
Martin: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Screenplay (Adapted), BAFTA (2017)

9. Lynne Ramsay, based on the book by Jonathan Ames (You Were Never Really Here)

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

10. Beau Willimon, based on the book by John Guy (Mary Queen of Scots)

Oscar Record: 1 nomination (as writer), no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Potential Major Players Currently Without Distributors (any of these can easily displace the lower-ranked contenders above once release dates are officially announced):
Kirsten Dunst, Nellie Kim, based on the novel by Sylvia Plath (The Bell Jar)
Robin Bissell, based on the book by Osha Gray Davidson (The Best of Enemies)
Isabel Coixet, based on the novel by Penelope Fitzgerald (The Bookshop)
Matt Bai, Jay Carson, Jason Reitman, based on the book by Matt Bai (The Front Runner)
Steve Zaillian, based on the book by Charles Brandt (The Irishman)
Tony Kushner, based on the novel by David I. Kertzer (The Kidnapping of Edgardo Mortara)
Debra Granik, based on the novel by Peter Rock (Leave No Trace)
Janece Shaffer, Colen C. Wiley, based on the novel by Walter Dean Myers (Monster)
Desiree Akhavan, Cecilia Frugiuele, based on the novel by Emily M. Danforth (The Miseducation of Cameron Post)
Geoffrey Fletcher, based on the magazine article by David Grann (Trial by Fire)

Other Contenders:
Alex Garland, based on the novel by Jeff VanderMeer (Annihilation)
Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel, Kevin Willmott, based on the book by Ron Stallworth (Black Klansman)

Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty, based on the memoir by Lee Israel (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Robert Rodat, based on the book by Nicholas Dawidoff (The Catcher Was a Spy)
Alex Ross Perry, Allison Schroeder, Tom McCarthy, based on characters created by A.A. Milne (Christopher Robin)
Sebastián Lelio, Rebecca Lenkiewicz, based on the novel by Naomi Alderman (Disobedience)
Gus Van Sant, based on the book by John Callahan (Don't Worry, He Won't Get Far on Foot)
Kristin Hahn, based on the novel by Julie Murphy (Dumplin')
Alice Johnson Boher, Sebastián Lelio, based on original characters by Sebastián Lelio (Gloria)
Andrew Haigh, based on the novel by Willy Vlautin (Lean on Pete)
Terry Gilliam Tony Grisoni, based on the novel by Miguel de Cervantes y Saavedra (The Man Who Killed Don Quixote)
David Magee, based on the books by P.L. Travers (Mary Poppins Returns)
Callie Kloves, based on the novel by Rudyard Kipling (Mowgli)
Ian McEwan, based on the novel by Ian McEwan (On Chesil Beach)
Semi Chellas, based on the book by Lisa Klein (Ophelia)
Arash Amel, based on the magazine article by Marie Brenner (A Private War)
Zak Penn, Ernest Cline, based on the novel by Ernest Cline (Ready Player One)
Stephen Karam, based on the play by Anton Chekhov (The Seagull)
Jacques Audiard, based on the novel by Patrick Dewitt (The Sisters Brothers)
David Kajganich, based on characters created by Dario Argento, Daria Nicolodi (Suspiria)
Shaun Grant, based on the novel by Peter Carey (The True History of the Kelly Gang)
Chanya Button, based on the play by Eileen Atkins (Vita and Virginia)
David Hare, based on the book by Julie Kavanagh (The White Crow)
Jane Anderson, based on the novel by Meg Wolitzer (The Wife)
Paul Dano, Zoe Kazan, based on the novel by Richard Ford (Wildlife)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (91st)

"NEVER TOO EARLY" PREDICTIONS

MOST LIKELY

1. ADAM MCKAY (BACKSEAT)

Oscar Record: 2 nominations (as director, writer), with a win for writing The Big Short

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

LIKELY

2. WES ANDERSON, ROMAN COPPOLA, KUNICHI NOMURA, JASON SCHWARTZMAN (ISLE OF DOGS)

Oscar Records:
Anderson: 6 nominations (as director, writer, producer), no win
Coppola: 1 nomination (as writer), no win
Nomura: No nomination
Schwartzman: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

MAYBE

3. DIABLO CODY (TULLY)

Oscar Record: 1 nomination and win for writing Juno

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

POSSIBLE

4. DANIEL STIEPLEMAN (ON THE BASIS OF SEX)

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

5. OJA KODAR, ORSON WELLES (THE OTHER SIDE OF THE WIND)

Oscar Record:
Kodar: No nomination
Welles: 3 nominations (as director, writer, actor), with a win for writing Citizen Kane

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

7. Tamara Jenkins (Private Life)

Oscar Record: 1 nomination (as writer), no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

7. Caroline Thompson, Robert Zemeckis (The Women of Marwen)

Oscar Records:
Thompson: No nomination
Zemeckis: 2 nominations (as director, writer), with a win for writing Forrest Gump

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

8. Ari Aster (Hereditary)

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

9. Scott Z. Burns (The Mercy)

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

10. Jonathan Bernstein, James Greer (Unsane)

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Potential Major Players Currently Without Distributors (any of these can easily displace the lower-ranked contenders above once release dates are officially announced):
Andrew Heckler (Burden)
Ian McEwan (The Children Act)
Bo Burnham (Eighth Grade)
Sarah Ruhl (My Life On the Road)
Bryce Kass (Lizzie)
David Gordon Green (Newsflash)
Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)

Other Contenders:
Jean-Claude Carrière, Julian Schnabel (At Eternity's Gate)
Peter Hedges (Ben is Back)
Ethan Hawke, Sybil Rosen (Blaze)
Justin Haythe, Anthony McCarten (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Richard Glatzer, Rebecca Lenkiewicz, Wash Westmoreland (Colette)
Marcus Hinchey (Come Sunday)
David Zellner, Nathan Zellner (Damsel)
Xavier Dolan, Jacob Tierney (The Death and Life of John F. Donovan)
Phil Hay, Matt Manfredi (Destroyer)
Paul Schrader (First Reformed)
David Auburn (Georgetown)
Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga (Green Book)
Rupert Everett (The Happy Prince)
Claire Denis, Jean-Pol Fargeau, Nick Laird, Zadie Smith (High Life)
Lars von Trier (The House That Jack Built)
Mike Makowsky (I Think We're Alone Now)
Helen Edmundson, Philippa Goslett (Mary Magdalene)
Oja Kodar, Orson Welles (The Other Side of the Wind)
Lone Scherfig (New York Winter Palace)
Paul Greengrass, Åsne Seierstad (Norway)
Matthew Orton (Operation Finale)
David Mackenzie (Outlaw King)
Sally Potter (The Party)
Mike Leigh (Peterloo)
Oren Moverman (Puzzle)
Terrence Malick (Radegund)
Woody Allen (A Rainy Day in New York)
Lindsay Shapero (Red Joan)
Aneesh Chaganty, Sev Ohanian (Search)
Steven Knight (Serenity)
Taylor Sheridan (Sicario 2: Soldado)
Crystal Moselle, Jen Silverman, Aslihan Unaldi (Skate Kitchen)
Boots Riley (Sorry to Bother You)
Jeff Pope (Stan and Ollie)
Steven McGregor, David Tranter (Sweet Country)
David Robert Mitchell (Under the Silver Lake)
Behn Zeitlin (Wendy)
Elizabeth Chomko (What They Had)
Darci Picoult (Where Is Kyra?)
Logan Miller, Noah Miller, Andy Weiss, Steve Kloves, Scott Silver (White Boy Rick)
Steven Knight (Woman Walks Ahead)

Sunday, March 11, 2018

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (91st)

"NEVER TOO EARLY" PREDICTIONS

LIKELY

1. CATE BLANCHETT (WHERE'D YOU GO, BERNADETTE)

Role: Bernadette Fox, an agoraphobic mother who goes missing

Oscar Record: 7 nominations, with wins for The Aviator and Blue Jasmine

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Cate Blanchett is a true Oscar favorite and astonishingly disappears into any role that she inhabits. As an anxiety-ridden mother whose disappearance before a family trip facilitates a search and self-discovery of her daughter, Blanchett might give us enough shades of her masterclass Blue Jasmine acting plus maternal warmth that has been lacking in most of her Oscar-nominated roles. So she'll probably give us something new again and blow our minds once more.

2. AMY ADAMS (BACKSEAT)

Role: Lynne Cheney, wife of Dick Cheney

Oscar Record: 5 nominations, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Putting on prostheses and playing the wife of a powerful political figure might just be the role that gets semi-regular nominee Amy Adams her first Oscar, two years after she barely missed a nomination for Arrival. She's well loved by the Academy, to be sure. A nomination is likely, at least, if the politics don't get in the way.

3. CLAIRE FOY (FIRST MAN)

Role: Janet Shearon, first wife of Neil Armstrong

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Claire Foy's isn't a household name in cinema yet, with most of the praise going her way via her work on TV's "The Crown." But she was given strong reviews for her performance in last year's Breathe, and this year she also has what looks like a tremendous lead performance in Steven Soderbergh's Unsafe. But being the biopic that this is, and one about Neil Armstrong at that, expect this to be the likelier first nomination.

MAYBE

4. MARGOT ROBBIE (MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS)

Role: Queen Elizabeth I

Oscar Record: 1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Margot Robbie is a new Hollywood darling with her bravura performance in I, Tonya and her endearing red carpet appearances. And now she'll be playing off against fellow nominee Saoirse Ronan, and no less than in a role that has seen multiple actresses getting nominated or even winning. It's certainly one of the most Oscar-bait roles around, so she doesn't need to do much, but we all know she'll deliver.

POSSIBLE

5. NICOLE KIDMAN (BOY ERASED)

Role: Nancy Conley, mother of a young man who gets sent to gay conversion therapy

Oscar Record: 4 nominations, with a win for The Hours

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Her last Oscar nomination was for portraying a warm, loving mother in Lion. This year, she might get nominated for playing an entirely different type of mother. Her transformative look alone might land her a nomination. But the last time she played nasty in The Paperboy, the Academy ignored her, so the voters might like their Nicole Kidman less icy.

6. Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)

Role: Sharon Rivers, mother of a woman in a race to prove her fiancé's innocence

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

7. Maura Tierney (Beautiful Boy)

Role: Karen Barbour, step-mother to a teen addicted to meth

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

8. Rachel Weisz (The Mercy)

Role: Clare Crowhurst, wife of an amateur sailor who attempts to circumnavigate the world alone

Oscar Record: 1 nomination and win for The Constant Gardener

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

9. Saoirse Ronan (The Seagull)

Role: Nina Zarechnaya, a young noblewoman caught up in a web of love

Oscar Record: 3 nominations, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

10. Tilda Swinton (Suspiria)

Role: Madam Blanc, vice-directress of a dark and mysterious dance academy

Oscar Record: 1 nomination and win for Michael Clayton

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Potential Major Players Currently Without Distributors (any of these can easily displace the lower-ranked contenders above once release dates are officially announced):
Jennifer Aniston (Dumplin')
Gemma Arterton (Vita and Virginia)
Patricia Clarkson (The Bookshop)
Laura Dern (Trial By Fire)
Vera Farmiga (The Front Runner)
Andrea Riseborough (Burden)
Kristen Stewart (Lizzie)
Naomi Watts (Ophelia)

Other Contenders:
Nina Arianda (Stan and Ollie)
Patricia Arquette (The Bell Jar)
Kathy Bates (The Death and Life of John F. Donovan)
Kathy Bates (On the Basis of Sex)
Juliette Binoche (High Life)
Lina Cardellini (Green Book)
Kayli Carter (Private Life)
Jessica Chastain (The Death and Life of John F. Donovan)
Patricia Clarkson (The Party)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Blythe Danner (What They Had)
Essie Davis (The True History of the Kelly Gang)
Adèle Exarchopoulos (The White Crow)
Taissa Farmiga (What They Had)
Mia Goth (High Life)
Rebecca Hall (A Rainy Day in New York)
Laura Harrier (Black Klansman)
Anne Hathaway (Serenity)
Shirley Henderson (Stan and Ollie)
Jennifer Hudson (Monster)
Cherry Jones (The Party)
Carol Kane (The Sisters Brothers)
Zoe Kazan (New York Winter Palace)
Riley Keough (Under the Silver Lake)
Mélanie Laurent (Operation Finale)
Jennifer Jason Leigh (White Boy Rick)
Rooney Mara (Don't Worry, He Won't Get Far on Foot)
Brit Marling (The Wife)
Rachel McAdams (Disobedience)
Frances McDormand (The Wife)
Emily Mortimer (The Party)
Elisabeth Moss (The Seagull)
Anna Paquin (The Irishman)
Maxine Peake (Peterloo)
Bel Powley (The Bell Jar)
Bel Powley (White Boy Rick)
Vanessa Redgrave (Georgetown)
Haley Lu Richardson (Operation Finale)
Susan Sarandon (The Death and Life of John F. Donovan)
Chloë Sevigny (Lean on Pete)
Amanda Seyfried (First Reformed)
Molly Shannon (Private Life)
Millicent Simmonds (A Quiet Place)
Meryl Streep (Mary Poppins Returns)
Uma Thurman (The House That Jack Built)
Jeanne Tripplehorn (Gloria)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Kristen Wiig (Where'd You Go, Bernadette)
Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians)